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Market Preview Week of 10/9/17 - Investor Sentiment

by Caldwell Trust

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  • Equity markets up strongly last week
  • Economic releases largely positve for the week
  • Large money center banks report Q3 earnings next week
  • 10-year Treasury yeilds rise slightly; trading in the 2.35% range

All three major domestic equity indices were up once again, in a relatively big way, notching gains over 1% for the week. The broad market as measured by the S&P 500 is now up over 15% for the year. Apart from the Energy and Telecommunication sectors equities were up strongly across the board. Domestic markets continue to hit new highs quietly with historically low volatility.

Economic releases last week – ISM Manufacturer’s Index, Durable Goods orders, and Jobless Claims – were all positive; the Payrolls report released Friday was disappointing but largely viewed as temporal due to the effects of September hurricanes. As noted here previously, two things lacking in the current recovery has been strong economic growth and inflation. The numbers reported last week argue for a pick-up in growth. Next week will provide insight into the current inflation picture with the release of both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI).

Q3 earnings season begins next week with the country’s largest banks reporting results. Banks are the dominate industry within the Financial sector by a wide margin. The Financial sector has trailed the broader market year to date but has outperformed the market as of late based largely on assumed monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. The sector’s projected earnings growth screens out well relative to other S&P 500 sectors over the coming year and trades at a relatively reasonable multiple.


On the economic calendar for next week:

On Thursday Jobless Claims and the PPI for September are reported. The CPI for September and Retail Sales for August are released Friday.


Financial stocks dominating the earnings calendar next week:

Tuesday – Neiman Marcus

Wednesday – BlackRock, Fastenal, and Delta Airlines

Thursday – Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, Domino’s Pizza, and Omnicom Group

Friday – Bank of America, PNC Financial Services, and Wells Fargo


Indices for the week and YTD are as follows:

S & P 500 up 1.19% for the week; YTD index return is 13.87%

NASDAQ Composite up 1.45% for the week; YTD index return is 22.42%

Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.65% for the week; YTD index return is 15.24%

Benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield stands at 2.37% - rising 4 basis points for the week


 J. Chris McGee, CFA, CAIA, Chief Investment Officer holds an MBA in finance and marketing from the J. L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University and a BS in commerce from the University of Virginia. He is a member of the CFA Institute, CFA Tampa Bay and CAIA Association. He also served on the candidate curriculum committee of the CFA Institute and served as a grader for the CFA Examination for the CFA Institute in Charlottesville, Virginia. He has served on the board of directors of Selah Freedom, Sarasota, since 2014.

Chris McGee heads Caldwell’s investment committee, which draws on a team of experienced in-house professionals and carefully chosen outside analysts to make decisions for client portfolios.

A Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst(CAIA), McGee had previously been senior investment adviser and senior vice president at PNC Wealth Management in Sarasota for nearly a decade. Prior to that he was portfolio manager for five years with U.S. Trust (formerly Bank of America) in Sarasota. Before relocating here, he had served as vice president, capital management, for Wachovia Bank in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.


About Caldwell Trust Company

Caldwell Trust Company is an independent trust company with offices in Venice and Sarasota, Florida. Established in 1993, the firm currently has nearly $1 billion dollars in assets under management for clients throughout the United States. The company offers a full range of fiduciary services to individuals including services as trustee, custodian, investment adviser, financial manager and personal representative. Additionally, Caldwell manages 401(k) and 403(b) qualified retirement plans for employers.

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