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Market Preview Week of 10/30/17 - Investor Sentiment

by Caldwell Trust
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Market Preview week of 10/30/17

  • Friday's session propels equity indices higher for the week
  • Bond yields rise marginally once again
  • Better than expected initial reading on Q3 GDP
  • Next week busy with earnings, tax reform news flow, and Fed chair appointment

All the weekly gains for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite index (and then some) occurred Friday of last week. The Dow Jones Industrial average also ended the week marginally higher. Extremely strong earnings releases from Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Microsoft drove technology shares higher. The Technology sector was up 2.75% for the week. In aggregate, earnings releases were good last week though there were a few stumbles in the Health Care sector.

For the third quarter, just over half of the S&P 500 have reported earnings and earnings beats have been in the normal range. Both earnings and revenue have realized mid-single digit growth. Another 100+ S&P 500 companies are slated to release earnings next week. Highlights are listed below.

Yields continue to rise in the bond markets in part due to the potential for change in monetary policy as a consequence of a new Fed Chair - President Trump’s announcement is anticipated Friday. Also, details of the tax reform package are anticipated to be announced mid-week.

 

The initial reading for Q3 GDP came in slightly above consensus at 3%. Spending on Durables Goods by consumers and Capital Spending by businesses were especially strong. The readings were less hampered by the recent natural disasters than expected. The report argues in favor of additional tightening by the Fed in December.

 

On the economic front next week, the Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday and is due to release their report on monetary policy Wednesday afternoon. As noted above the announcement of a new Fed chair and tax reform legislation should also dominate headlines.

Next week earnings include:

Monday –  Dominion Energy, Mondelez Int’l., and Diamond Offshore Drilling

Tuesday – Aetna, Carlyle Group, Steve Madden, and Under Armour

Wednesday – Facebook, Pfizer, and U.S. Steel

Thursday – Apple, Cigna, DuPont, and Exelon

Friday – Berkshire Hathaway, Duke Energy, and Pinnacle West

Indices for the week and YTD are as follows:

S & P 500 up .23% for the week; YTD index return is 15.29%

NASDAQ Composite up 1.09% for the week; YTD index return is 24.49%

Dow Jones Industrial Average up .45% for the week; YTD index return is 18.58%

Benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield stands at 2.43% - advancing 5 basis points for the week

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 J. Chris McGee, CFA, CAIA, Chief Investment Officer holds an MBA in finance and marketing from the J. L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University and a BS in commerce from the University of Virginia. He is a member of the CFA Institute, CFA Tampa Bay and CAIA Association. He also served on the candidate curriculum committee of the CFA Institute and served as a grader for the CFA Examination for the CFA Institute in Charlottesville, Virginia. He has served on the board of directors of Selah Freedom, Sarasota, since 2014.

Chris McGee heads Caldwell’s investment committee, which draws on a team of experienced in-house professionals and carefully chosen outside analysts to make decisions for client portfolios.

A Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst(CAIA), McGee had previously been senior investment adviser and senior vice president at PNC Wealth Management in Sarasota for nearly a decade. Prior to that he was portfolio manager for five years with U.S. Trust (formerly Bank of America) in Sarasota. Before relocating here, he had served as vice president, capital management, for Wachovia Bank in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.

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About Caldwell Trust Company

Caldwell Trust Company is an independent trust company with offices in Venice and Sarasota, Florida. Established in 1993, the firm currently has nearly $1 billion dollars in assets under management for clients throughout the United States. The company offers a full range of fiduciary services to individuals including services as trustee, custodian, investment adviser, financial manager and personal representative. Additionally, Caldwell manages 401(k) and 403(b) qualified retirement plans for employers.

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