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The Caldwell Trust Company Blog

Market Preview Week of 8/28/17 - Investor Sentiment

Posted by Chris McGee, CFA CAIA

With the S&P 500 up double digits year to date many investors are increasingly nervous about the next sell off. We thought we would look at recent history and examine the magnitude of intra-year declines. The chart below (courtesy of FactSet, S&P, and JP Morgan) shows the intra-year declines and calendar year returns beginning in 1980 - thru June of this year. Year to date thru June the intra-year decline for 2017 is just 3%. The average intra-year decline for the period is just over 14%. In the 37 calendar years the intra-year decline was less than 10% about 43% of the time. About 41% of the time the decline was above 10% but below 20% (technically a “correction” is a market that goes down more than 10%). In 6 years (16% of the time), the intra-year decline was greater than 20% (aka a “bear” market). While the markets have grinded higher with little interruption so far this year, investors forget we had corrections (albeit shallow) both last year and in 2015.

 

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Topics: Market Preview

Your Essential Estate Planning Documents to Gain Peace of Mind (Part 2)

Posted by Jan Miller

In a previous post, we discussed two essential estate planning documents that will give you and your family peace of mind, and this post follows up with three more essential documents. This blog post series will help to clarify your final wishes about everything from assets to health directives and more, providing peace of mind for you, and your heirs and loved ones.  

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Topics: Trusts & Estate Planning

Market Preview Week of 8/21/17 - Investor Sentiment

Posted by Chris McGee, CFA CAIA

  • Trading volumes should pick up as summer ends
  • Domestic equity markets decline for second week in a row
  • Macro backdrop remains favorable for equities
  • Concern over market pullback increases

 


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Topics: Market Preview

Saluting George Donald Fraley and The Wilson-Wood Foundation

Posted by Caldwell Trust

Despite his quiet manner, George Donald Fraley has achieved a significant record of accomplishments in our community, most recently with the Wilson-Wood Foundation. The foundation board recently met and was joined by its accounting firm, Kerkering, Barberio, and its investment adviser, Caldwell Trust Company, in honoring Don for over 30 years of service to the Wilson-Wood Foundation. “Our focus is on children, older people, ethnic minorities and mental health,” Don said. As foundation vice president, he reviews grant applications along with secretary/treasurer/executive director Susan Wood — daughter of foundation co-founder John Wood — and her husband, Thomas Faessler, the president.

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Topics: Caldwell Cares

Market Preview Week of 8/14/17 - Investor Sentiment

Posted by Chris McGee, CFA CAIA

Your Market Update:

  • Domestic equity markets go negative
  • Treasuries and Gold rally
  • Retail earnings report disappoint
  • Solid Q2 earnings season wrapping up

Domestic equity markets were down across the board for the week on geo-political saber rattling and mixed earnings results. Tensions between North Korea and the U.S. was at least partially responsible for Treasury bonds appreciating and Gold rallying on the week. All three major equity indices were off over 1%. Several brick and mortar retailers reported earnings late in the week; both revenues and guidance continue to deteriorate. Keep in mind next week is dominated by more earnings releases from retailers.

On the economic front, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July was released and continues to indicate no meaningful pick-up in inflation. This weighed on Treasury yields as well as the 10-year Treasury closed below 2.20% and remains at the low end of its recent trading range. The continued subdued trend in inflation brings in to question whether the Fed will raise rates once again this year.

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Topics: Market Preview

7 Common Mistakes you find in Retirement Plans

Posted by Tony Blasini, CPC, QPA

As a small business owner, sometimes it can be challenging to run a business and at the same time make sure that your retirement plan is being administered correctly and kept in compliance with IRS and DOL regulations.

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Topics: Retirement Plan Services

Market Preview Week of 8/7/17 - Investor Sentiment

Posted by Chris McGee, CFA CAIA

Your Market Update:

  • The Dow moves higher; S&P 500 and NASDAQ trade flat
  • Economic releases last week were positive
  • Global growth accelerating
  • Many old-line retailers report earnings next week

Earnings for the second quarter continue to roll in and in aggregate continue to beat estimates as does top line growth for S & P 500 companies.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up over 1% for the second week in a row. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were essentially flat for the week.

Friday’s jobs report beat consensus expectations with payrolls increasing 209,000. The unemployment rate ticked down slightly and stands at 4.3%. The labor participation rate ticked up (a good thing) but continues to be low within a historical context. Wage growth picked up but not meaningfully.  The economy continues to improve at a slow pace with inflation muted. The market consensus remains that the probability the Federal Reserve raise rates in December remains below 50%. While slow economic growth has been the norm here, globally growth prospects have been improving. The decline in the dollar should provide a tailwind for large domestic multinational companies.

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Topics: Market Preview

The Importance of Knowing Who is Administering Your Company 401k

Posted by Tony Blasini, CPC, QPA

Saving for retirement should be easy, but there’s a host of federal regulations and financial considerations that can make providing a reasonable plan to your employees complicated. That’s where having a trustworthy 401k program provider becomes incredibly important. A provider is responsible for ensuring that the entire plan functions (including handling various tasks like onboarding new participants and filing the appropriate forms) and that it does so legally and to the benefit of both the sponsor and participants. Businesses can find a bundled or unbundled solution for each aspect: non-producing administrators (i.e., focus on compliance), record keepers, and fiduciaries (i.e., investment managers that take on a certain amount of liability), trustee and custodian.

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Topics: Investments, Corporate, Retirement Plan Services

Market Preview Week of 7/31/17 - Investor Sentiment

Posted by Chris McGee, CFA CAIA

Your Market Update:

  • The Dow moves higher; S&P 500 and NASDAQ retreat
  • Q2 earnings growth continues to be strong in aggregate
  • S&P 500 valuation high but not excessive
  • Initial Q2 GDP growth in line
  • The Fed doesn't increase the Fed Funds rate

Last week was a bit of an exception in the domestic equity markets as the “FANG” stocks declined on a net basis and a few old-line industrials moved higher. Consequently, both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite were down slightly for the week, and the Dow Jones Industrials advanced more than 1%. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials have now returned in the double digits year-to-date. The worst performing sectors on the year – Telecommunications and Energy were the best performers for the week.

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Topics: Market Preview

 


 

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